Stuck in the Past: Lessons on Emissions for Developing Oil Producers

• Most economies are slowly decarbonizing, but the economies of high-income, fossil fuel-rich countries are not. This is the case whether examining production- or consumption-based emissions.
• Low-income, fossil fuel-rich countries can learn from the experience of wealthier fossil fuel-rich countries. Remaining on their current path could mean that low-income, fossil fuel-rich countries could face high energy costs, exclusion from export markets, and failure to meet future climate commitments.

As much of the world slowly moves into a low-carbon future, a group of countries are firmly stuck in a fossil-fuel past. These are mainly countries rich in fossil fuel resources. This is not only a problem for the global target to limit the emissions of greenhouse gases, but it puts these countries under a “carbon curse”. Under this curse, people pay more for energy, might be locked out of trading opportunities with countries with carbon taxes, and breath dirtier air.

These fossil fuel-rich countries provide a lessons for developing countries with fossil fuels that are still to industrialize. These are countries that still have time to change direction to avoid being stuck in the past, and move into a more prosperous and cleaner future.