Podcast: Fossil Fuels and Climate Change, Featuring NRGI’s David Manley

In this episode of Sheila Khama’s Extractives podcast produced on 17 August, David Manley, a senior economic analyst with NRGI, discusses what the energy transition is, its drivers and responses, and its impact on regions like Africa.



In the recording, Manley highlights a technological revolution and a huge shift in the way we use technologies, such as solar or wind power generation, as well as the radical decline in the cost of these technologies.

“The Paris Agreement is also, to some extent, driving the energy transition," Manley says. It gives investors and businesses some certainty that over the next few decades there will be a market for renewable energy."

Regarding the impact of global energy transition on oil- and gas-producing countries in Africa, Manley points to a foreseeable decline in demand for their exports. However, as the African continent is particularly vulnerable to the severe effects of climate change, he also points to some of the benefits of global transition:

“By far these severe effects will outweigh most of the economic effects from reducing fossil fuel demand. So if the energy transition and the Paris Agreement can help limit that change, that is a great thing we should be aiming for.”

One significant upside for some countries is the increasing demand for metals and minerals, such as copper, cobalt and lithium, which are needed to develop green technologies. With demand for these metals expected to increase in the coming decades, many mining countries could benefit. Manley emphasizes that Africa has the most to gain from this boom.

Given the challenges and opportunities facing resource-rich developing countries, Manley stresses the importance of good governance for a successful transition. 

He explains: “For oil- and gas-rich countries, the top priority is to manage these risks, be proactive and ensure that governments are not assuming high oil prices and that everything will be fine. We need to make a big change, using scenarios and thinking more pessimistically, for example, if there is a big drop in gas prices and collapse in production, what that means for countries’ economies and finances, and develop a plan to respond before it is too late.”

David Manley is a senior economic analyst at the Natural Resource Governance Institute (NRGI).